Webpages useful for teachers of intermediate macroeconomics:

GDP from 2000 to 2001: What a GDP Release Looks Like

2002-01-30

Powerpoint Version

This morning, January 30, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first preliminary reports on GDP in the fourth quarter of 2001. GDP in the fourth quarter was 0.05 percent higher than in the third quarter (hence it was growing at an annual rate of 0.2 percent). Total GDP in the fourth quarter of 2001 was 0.1 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2000. Consumption spending was 3 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2000. Investment spending was 15 percent lower than in the fourth quarter of 2000. And government spending was 5 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2000.

So far, therefore, the recession of 2001 has been much more of an "investment" recession than is usual. Typically in a recession, falling incomes lead to falling consumption. That is not the case here and now. Consumption growth has certainly slowed, but it has not stopped.

Billions of chained (1996) dollars
----------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
at annual rates
--------------------------------------------
2001 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP)... 9,325.5 9,303.9 9,334.5 9,341.7 9,310.4 9,315.6

Personal consumption expenditures. 6,447.3 6,341.1 6,388.5 6,428.4 6,443.9 6,528.4

Durable goods................... 955.1 899.4 922.4 938.1 940.2 1,019.8
Motor vehicles and parts...... 374.9 343.9 357.0 361.9 361.5 419.2
Furniture and household
equipment.................... 403.1 383.8 391.0 400.5 403.7 417.4
Other......................... 179.7 175.4 177.5 179.5 179.3 182.5

Nondurable goods................ 1,881.4 1,866.8 1,878.0 1,879.4 1,882.0 1,886.3
Food.......................... 884.8 886.4 887.3 886.1 883.8 882.1
Clothing and shoes............ 344.9 339.9 342.7 344.1 344.7 347.9
Gasoline, fuel oil, and
other energy goods........... 151.7 150.9 152.6 150.1 152.6 151.5
Gasoline and oil............ 139.2 137.2 138.9 137.7 140.1 140.1
Fuel oil and coal........... 12.7 13.8 13.8 12.6 12.7 11.8
Other......................... 502.2 491.4 497.3 501.4 503.0 507.2

Services........................ 3,632.6 3,588.8 3,605.1 3,629.8 3,640.4 3,655.2
Housing....................... 866.9 856.6 861.3 864.9 868.4 872.8
Household operation........... 387.7 393.4 392.3 387.0 388.0 383.5
Electricity and gas......... 134.6 144.4 140.1 135.0 134.0 129.4
Other household operation... 253.7 248.7 252.3 252.7 254.7 255.2
Transportation................ 252.6 253.8 254.4 254.2 252.0 249.8
Medical care.................. 935.4 915.0 921.6 932.1 940.2 947.8
Recreation.................... 232.2 228.5 232.2 232.8 231.2 232.6
Other......................... 956.8 941.3 942.8 957.7 959.7 967.0

Gross private domestic investment. 1,630.6 1,778.3 1,721.0 1,666.2 1,620.5 1,514.7

Fixed investment................ 1,682.8 1,732.1 1,740.3 1,696.4 1,671.6 1,622.9
Nonresidential................ 1,308.8 1,374.5 1,373.9 1,320.9 1,292.0 1,248.4
Structures.................. 275.8 283.3 291.7 282.3 276.8 252.3
Nonresidential buildings,
including farm........... 186.6 199.1 202.0 191.6 180.8 172.0
Utilities................. 52.6 53.5 56.1 55.0 49.9 49.6
Mining exploration,
shafts, and wells........ 28.5 24.8 28.3 30.4 30.0 25.3
Other structures.......... 8.9 7.0 6.3 5.9 17.0 6.3
Equipment and software...... 1,039.1 1,099.3 1,087.7 1,043.2 1,019.4 1,005.9
Information processing
equipment and software... 588.5 641.8 620.9 588.1 572.1 572.9
Computers and
peripheral equipment... 289.2 317.6 314.4 287.3 265.7 289.2
Software................ 192.1 196.0 192.9 191.1 193.1 191.3
Other................... 164.5 193.2 180.8 165.9 158.1 153.3
Industrial equipment...... 157.5 165.6 170.7 161.2 151.3 146.7
Transportation equipment.. 174.4 176.2 177.4 174.4 174.0 171.8
Other..................... 141.0 144.4 143.3 141.1 142.3 137.1
Residential................... 376.5 365.3 372.9 378.3 380.5 374.2
Structures.................. 366.8 355.8 363.3 368.6 370.9 364.5
Single family............. 191.9 185.0 191.1 192.8 193.3 190.3
Multifamily............... 23.9 22.2 23.3 24.2 24.7 23.5
Other..................... 151.0 148.7 149.0 151.6 152.9 150.7
Equipment................... 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8
Change in private inventories... -62.0 42.8 -27.1 -38.3 -61.9 -120.6
Farm.......................... -2.7 3.0 .2 -2.5 -2.9 -5.5
Construction, mining,
and utilities................ 3.0 -6.8 1.9 6.8 2.4 .9
Manufacturing................. -33.0 12.9 -15.0 -35.6 -47.0 -34.5
Wholesale trade............... -13.4 12.5 -3.0 2.6 -18.9 -34.3
Retail trade.................. -18.5 19.3 -15.3 -13.2 1.2 -46.6
Other industries.............. 1.4 2.8 3.6 1.2 .5 .3

Net exports of goods and services. -413.7 -421.1 -404.5 -406.7 -411.0 -432.6

Exports......................... 1,080.7 1,147.5 1,144.1 1,108.3 1,052.2 1,018.0
Goods......................... 788.0 849.5 844.4 805.2 762.9 739.6
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 61.4 59.8 62.1 61.1 59.4 62.8
Industrial supplies and
materials.................. 162.6 172.1 168.7 162.7 160.2 158.8
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 357.8 404.3 405.2 367.3 338.2 320.5
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 73.0 75.4 70.0 74.2 75.2 72.4
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 88.9 90.1 93.5 93.3 85.6 83.0
Other....................... 45.2 49.0 47.1 47.0 44.2 42.7
Services...................... 293.5 300.5 301.8 303.6 289.6 278.9

Imports......................... 1,494.4 1,568.5 1,548.6 1,515.0 1,463.2 1,450.6
Goods......................... 1,282.3 1,345.9 1,322.8 1,290.1 1,256.6 1,259.7
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 51.9 50.4 49.7 50.6 53.8 53.4
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum and products..... 165.5 167.2 165.0 166.5 166.5 164.0
Petroleum and products...... 88.7 85.9 91.3 92.2 85.3 86.0
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 401.3 470.1 456.6 400.4 374.4 373.8
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 187.4 189.5 183.4 188.3 189.2 188.9
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 299.9 306.2 305.4 300.7 294.6 299.0
Other....................... 83.1 86.6 77.6 85.2 84.3 85.5
Services...................... 213.3 224.7 227.4 226.2 207.6 192.1

Government consumption
expenditures and
gross investment................. 1,627.7 1,582.8 1,603.4 1,623.0 1,624.1 1,660.2

Federal......................... 559.7 547.9 552.2 554.7 559.6 572.5
National defense.............. 365.4 353.8 360.3 362.4 365.3 373.5
Consumption expenditures.... 307.1 296.0 304.4 304.6 307.5 311.9
Gross investment............ 58.7 58.4 56.1 58.2 58.1 62.3
Nondefense.................... 194.3 194.0 191.8 192.3 194.3 198.9
Consumption expenditures.... 150.8 151.8 149.5 150.0 149.8 153.8
Gross investment............ 44.1 42.6 42.9 42.8 45.2 45.8

State and local................. 1,067.2 1,034.3 1,050.5 1,067.4 1,063.8 1,087.0
Consumption expenditures.... 851.3 830.5 839.1 846.9 855.9 863.4
Gross investment............ 216.1 203.9 211.6 221.0 207.9 224.0

Residual.......................... -76.2 -96.6 -89.0 -75.6 -57.8 -82.0

Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product. 9,368.7 9,256.7 9,347.8 9,364.8 9,352.5 9,409.6
Gross domestic purchases........ 9,711.6 9,694.4 9,710.4 9,720.4 9,695.1 9,720.3
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 9,755.1 9,647.1 9,723.8 9,743.7 9,737.5 9,815.3

Gross domestic product.......... 9,325.5 9,303.9 9,334.5 9,341.7 9,310.4 9,315.6

Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world.......... ..... 374.3 350.3 319.6 296.2 .....
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world.......... ..... 365.8 355.2 325.7 301.8 .....

Equals: Gross national product.. ..... 9,311.7 9,329.1 9,335.5 9,304.9 .....

Net domestic product............ 7,975.4 8,031.2 8,030.6 8,001.5 7,922.5 7,947.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components
for which relative prices are changing rapidly, the use of
chained-dollar estimates to calculate component shares or component
contributions to real growth may be misleading even just a few years
from the base year. For accurate estimates of the contributions to
percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.


Previous Handouts

2001-01-21: The Course of the U.S. Recession (Chapter 13: Stabilization Policy)
2001-01-07: Argentina's Crisis (Chapter 15: Exchange Rate Regimes)
2001-12-10: The U.S. Recession (Chapter 2: Principal Macroeconomic Variables)
2001-12-03: The Overvalued Euro (Chapter 3: Exchange Rates; Chapter 15: Exchange Rate Regimes)
2001-11-26: Net Exports, the Exchange Rate, and an IS-Led Boom (Chapter 11: Balance of Payments; Chapter 15: Exchange Rate Regimes)
2001-11-19: The European Central Bank and Its Monetary Policy (Chapter 13: Stabilization Policy)
2001-11-12: Central Banks Worldwide Cut Interest Rates Again (Chapter 13: Stabilization Policy)
2001-11-05: Effects of the Collapse in Spending on Durables (Chapter 9: Income-Expenditure and the Multiplier.)
2001-10-28: What Kind of Stimulus (Chapter 13: Stabilization Policy. Chapter 9: Income-Expenditure and the Multiplier.)
2001-10-21: Federal Reserve Reaction to the Terror Attack on the World Trade Center (Chapter 13: Stabilization Policy. Chapter 10: The IS Curve.)
2001-10-14: Why a Stimulus Package Might Be Desireable (Chapter 13: Stabilization Policy. Chapter 10: The IS Curve.)


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